Where the heck are we?
It’s been a while since we commented on where we are in the market cycle, and while we typically do a fuller assessment at the end of the year, we thought the mid-year would also be a good time to comment. This isn’t a prediction per se but more of a “State of the Union” to discuss where we are and where me might go. Despite major indices at or near their all-time-highs we actually think this is a decent time to deploy capital.
To anyone who is active in the global stock market, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say that this year has been quite jarring. While the broad indexes have done really well with the S&P 500 up ~15% (before dividends) and the All-World Index up around 11.3%, it’s been a different story behind the scenes. Individual stocks have been very volatile, with Jan-Feb continuing the SPAC, meme stock, and growth craze to a resurgence in April, to a further deflation in May, and a nice bounce again in June (and then to show weakness again in July). China tech has taken a beating due to CCP action. Several in-favour stocks from 2020 are 30-40% off their highs, but considering how stretched their valuations had been, the market has been quite efficient and ruthless in knocking down their multiples. For a while, it seemed that the rotation out of growth was going to lead to value stocks having their day(s) in the sun, but ‘transitory’ inflation talk and a steadying of the 10 year rates has, at least for now, put a stopper in that champagne bottle. The S&P 500 Value Index has been flat since April and the Russell 2000 Value index is down 10% from its peak. A lot of this is movement has been driven by macro concerns, which we typically write off as noise, but we will admit that this noise has been noisier than usual.
It’s also been a rough couple months for active management with the Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index up only 8% through June, underperforming all major indices. The dichotomy between the index performance and individual stocks was laid bare on 14th July when something like 90% of the S&P 500 ended in the red, but the index itself still eked out a gain when Apple moved up over 2% (gives credence to the saying “why look for the needle when you can buy the haystack?”).
Now, all of this has been at a backdrop on many pundits screaming that we’re in a bubble ( i.e. the Michael Burry’s of the world– but I guess when you have Jim Cramer telling you to bet the farm on Didi shares and pumping AMC’s stock, who can blame them). Granted, there have been talks of a ‘bubble’ for the last 5 years, but I get the sense that if we are in one, we’re not at the peak anymore. There were times this year i.e. in Feb or at the peak of the meme stock craze where I did think so, but a lot of those individual “bubbles” have deflated. If you’re unsure of the later deflation, go to r/wallstreetbets and search for “Loss Porn.” Further, when trying to judge where we are in the market cycle, I like using sentiment rather than any sort of macro-data. If the sentiment is quite poor, usually it’s a signal to buy, whereas if the sentiment is euphoric, I start to take chips off the table. A good place to start looking at this is CNN Money’s Fear and Greed Index.
As you can see from the above, as of this writing (17th July) the index is far more on the Fear side than anything else, and has been getting worse over the last month. Now, this is just one data point, but it is a strong hint that we’re not at a euphoric level. Out of the seven indicators the gauge measures (Market Momentum, Junk Bond Demand, Market Volatility, Put/Call Ratio, Safe-Haven demand, Stock Price Strength, and Stock Price Breath), 4 are in the “Extreme Fear” category. Only one indicator – Junk Bond demand – remains in the “Greed” category.
One of my more interesting Twitter follows is Jurrien Timmer who is the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity. He’s posted a number of interesting threads lately, but in this particular one he clearly stated as the above that while there are pockets of excess (like in bonds) he doesn’t see a broad one in equity markets, especially after the recent deflations.
Now this doesn’t mean that the market won’t go lower, it certainly could. That’s why we think this is “a” time to buy – but it’s near impossible to tell if it’s “the” time. But even Howard Marks, who inspired me to use sentiment as a guide, recently came on the Invest like the Best podcast and stated he struggled to see how the market was at the top of its cycle despite his conservative nature.
But there are three major events worth discussing as they will have a high impact on short-term market direction.
Earnings – I’m actually quite excited for this earnings season. I think our portfolio companies should do quite well. But the June quarter earnings are a real test for us as we start to come out of covid (I hope). For growth companies, this quarter will start to cycle through comps, and we’ll really start to see if covid was a one-time boost, or if growth companies were really able to retain customers as markets re-opened. For recovery stocks, it’ll be interesting to see if they’ve really recovered, and which ones came out of their hardship leaner and stronger, or which ones just blamed covid to hide their declining businesses. But on the whole, I’m going to go out on a limb here and guess that earnings should be all-around quite strong (and so far this seems to have been proven correct).
Powell and the Punch Bowl – For now, Chairman Powell has stated he is not removing the punchbowl and wants to see greater economic recovery. That said, inflation is a tricky thing, and even Paul Volker, in his memoirs, admitted he had a tough time predicting and trying to tame it (though he eventually succeeded). Despite the inflation surprise this week, there’s an argument that was made that the 5%+ number was due to just a few categories (i.e. vehicles), but I do wonder if that’s just the first of several categories to experience high inflation. So if inflation numbers get worse – we could see a repeat of 2018 where Q4 was a Mike Tyson strength gut punch to the stock market. This for me, the interest rate/inflation risk, is still the biggest short-term uncertainty.
Delta Variant – The spread of the delta variant has captured headlines of late, and its virulent nature is troubling. However on a market level I am perhaps a bit less concerned about it than most (on a humanitarian perspective it’s very troubling). The reason I say this is that the Delta Variant ripped through India like water going through tissue paper. It was horrendous for families who lost loved ones, including my own. However after a brutal two months, the country turned a corner, and cases have dropped as vaccinations increased. Further the Indian stock market is trading at its all-time high. I believe this is because the Delta and other variants are a “Known Known” risk to the market - we are know the risk and can estimate the outcome. “Known Known” risks can cause market corrections but mild ones. I will caveat that if for example a vaccine-resistant strain does develop this risk would turn into an “Unknown Known” and this could cause a significant crash as it would shift humanity back to square one. (So please folks – go get vaccinated – and those in Singapore, please stop visiting KTV lounges).
Overall while there are risks across the horizon (frankly there always are), I do think that the market has actually done its job this year. It’s shaken off the excesses of 2020 and early 2021. While it’s being pushed higher by just a few large-caps that have a high weighting in the index, they also contribute an equivalent earnings share. Further, the declines in the euphoric pockets have been reasonably ‘orderly’ as compared to say March 2020 when mayhem was the word of the day for many days. I do, however, think valuations are still elevated and you may have to move down the market cap curve to find more value . But if earnings are strong, and the market remains flat due to worries about inflation/rates/variants, then we could see valuations adjust accordingly.
The risk that participants see about investing in markets at all-time highs, for now appears more mental than real, and as long as the Fed play ball, the next several months could be quite positive. With regards to our position, coming into July we had been holding a bit more cash on hand than usual. Considering our assessment above, we do think this is a reasonable time to deploy some of that capital and have been over the last few days. Whether to deploy that capital in growth, value, mid, small, well that’s a deeply personal choice. We have a strong inclination to deploy capital across the board as we own both traditional growth and value stocks, and have mega, large, mid and small caps in the portfolio. Though this is more of a reflection of our comfort level and our personality – as we strive for balance in our personal life, we strive for it in our portfolio too.
We hope you enjoyed reading our thoughts on where we are in the market cycle, and how we’re positioning our portfolio. Thanks for reading, and happy investing!